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Residents of the Big Apple will find out who will be their new city leader this Tuesday, in a contest that will determine who runs and defends the country's most populous metropolis at a time when Donald Trump has threatened to deploy armed forces to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against one another. The election has turned into an increasingly bitter showdown, marked by accusations of racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading contenders that could have significant consequences for how the party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has brought international attention. Representing the old guard is Andrew Cuomo, the former Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the support of wealthy contributors and big business.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the former longshot who beat his opponent in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a platform of affordability and promised to freeze rent for about 2 million New Yorkers, has led Cuomo by double-digits across all surveys conducted in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's race to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, the former governor, who stepped down as governor in recent years amid accusations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has trashed Mamdani's goals as unachievable, and in recent days laughed as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Recently, the independent was strongly criticized as bigoted after posting an artificial intelligence video that included a slew of racial caricatures and showed his opponent releasing a group of criminals.

This represents a rather grubby end to an election that could be critical to the direction that the Democratic party, floundering in its reaction to the former president's authoritarian grabs, takes in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

Should the progressive wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his bid will be forced to reckon with a message that has resonated with Americans' anger at inequality, inflation and the political elite. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to embrace at least some of Mamdani's progressive proposals about affordability, given the newcomer has created an enthusiasm within the party perhaps not witnessed since Bernie Sanders ran for president eight years ago.

Conversely, should the former governor, who had been expected to win easily in the June primary, achieve a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could cement the party's existing approach of considered, lackluster resistance – a tactic that has angered grassroots members. A NYC defeat of the progressive's optimistic platform could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to remain in the center – even as surveys show the present version of the party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Campaign Energy

Voters in New York appear to favor the progressive agenda. Surveys show that his backers are much more excited about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. Mamdani's snappy videos on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for New York and his willingness to actually venture out and meet people in the metropolis has attracted an army of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them young or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

Yet, the former governor, 67, continues to fight. And with the stakes against him, the former governor has turned to ugly messaging in the final days.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might stick, the independent has concentrated on targeting Mamdani personally. He has labelled Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and popped up on Fox Business for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo asserted the city “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It hit bottom recently, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy echoes much of what Trump, who has deployed the national guard to Washington DC and warned to take similar action to New York, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to Trump in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to elect the independent into office, as other influential figures have pressured the Republican candidate to drop out from the contest.

Political Histories

For the his team, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should never have come to this point. When the assemblyman, one of 150 state legislators, started his mayoral bid in last year, not many had heard of him, and in truth, few even noticed.

The former governor, by contrast, entered smoothly into the contest in March 2025 and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held all the advantages. The quintessential political insider, he had married a political dynasty member and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became New York governor in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his father, Mario Cuomo, left office from the same position.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – offer a brighter outlook of the future than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Still, the candidate has encountered difficulties in the final phase, after footage emerged suggesting him implying the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the clip, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in 2023. The progressive, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the nation is committing genocide in Gaza, suggested he was questioning joint training exercises between the city police and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, the candidate seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his response to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

Mamdani addressed Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first ran for the legislature, a family member advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could express their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our beliefs.”

Speaking to the behavior of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd