Moving from Reluctant Respect to Disquiet: Russia Weighs Up the Fall of Maduro.

A unexpected operation against the capital city in the dead of night, culminating in the capture of the country's president. By the next morning, the foreign force declares its intention to govern for an indefinite period.

That is precisely how Vladimir Putin imagined his full-scale invasion of Ukraine playing out in early 2022. Instead, it was the former US president who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a operation labeled illegal by many, spiriting away the Kremlin's longtime partner Nicolás Maduro, who now faces trial in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

Officially, Russian officials have reacted with anger, condemning the attack as a blatant breach of international law and a worrying development. But behind the rhetoric, there is a sense of reluctant admiration – and even jealousy – at the efficiency of a power grab that Russia once imagined, but could not carry out due to a series of intelligence blunders and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The operation was carried out with precision,” wrote the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel Dva Mayora. “Most likely, this is precisely the way our 'special military operation' was meant to proceed: swift, decisive and decisive. It’s difficult to imagine Russia's top general expected to be engaged in combat for four years.”

These observations have fueled a atmosphere of soul-searching among pro-war voices, with some publicly wondering how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine morphed into a long and bloody war.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “embarrassment” on Russia's behalf given how brazen the American action seemed. “In the space of a day, Trump arrested Maduro and seemingly wrapped up his own 'special military operation,’” she wrote.

Allies in Decline

For more than two decades, Venezuela worked to build a web of anti-American allies – from Moscow and Beijing to Cuba and Iran – in the hope of forging a new axis capable of standing up to Washington.

Yet despite Moscow's top diplomat vowing backing for the Caracas government as recently as late December, hardly any experts ever believed Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, watched other important partners fall from power or weaken sharply – from Syria's leader to an ever-more fragile Iran – exposing the constraints of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the circumstances are deeply uncomfortable,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a key ally and fellow traveler, and Maduro and Putin have long-term relations, forcing Moscow into no option but to voice condemnation. But offering any tangible support to a country so distant is simply not feasible – for practical and operational reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

There is also a more practical calculation. Putin's priority, experts note, is Ukraine – and maintaining a good relationship with Trump on that front greatly exceeds the fate of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are currently focused on a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a much larger strategic game with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a secondary concern,” the analyst concluded.

Tangible Costs and New Threats

Nevertheless, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a pro-American administration were to emerge in Caracas, American military specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including advanced Russian-made systems.

Those include S-300VM air-defence systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also provided billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is crude oil: American control over Venezuela's vast reserves could depress international oil prices, endangering one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'partners' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Still, some in Moscow perceive a grim silver lining. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they argue, could deal a final blow to the rules-based international order and usher in a more nakedly 19th-century-style world – one where might, rather than rules, determines results.

“Team Trump is tough and cynical in pursuing its national interests,” wrote Russia's former president with endorsement. “Removing Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The law of the strongest is clearly more powerful than ordinary justice.”