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Initially, the former US president seemed to adopt a strong approach regarding the Ukrainian conflict. Following delivering threats of "severe consequences" during the summer if Vladimir Putin persisted obstructing truce negotiations, the former president ultimately introduced major penalties on the Russian primary oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil. This move significantly hindered Putin's ability to finance his aggression in the region.

However, with his latest 28-point peace initiative for Ukraine, that was created by American and Russian officials excluding Ukrainian or European involvement, the former president has clearly reverted to his Russia-friendly stance.

Favoring Invasion

Trump's proposal would effectively favor Putin for attacking Ukraine while placing the country's democracy in peril. Although strong declarations that "The nation's sovereignty will be confirmed", large portions of the initiative effectively undermine that same sovereignty. What represents a Kremlin dream would likely be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Demonstrating his business past, the former president seems to treat the war as a basic border issue, as if ceding Russia a section of Ukrainian soil will appease the ruler. However, Putin's war is not merely about dominating a charred swath of economically weakened land in eastern Ukraine. Rather, it is about the nation's democratic governance – and the Russian leader's clear desire to weaken it so it ceases to functions as an enticing example for the Russian people of the democratic leadership that Putin's growing dictatorship prevents them.

Land Surrenders

Although maintaining in place the already divided oblasts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the proposal would force Ukraine to surrender all of Donetsk province. In addition to benefiting the Russian Federation with land that its troops have been unsuccessful to occupy in over a ten years of warfare, this concession would make Ukraine's military defenses critically undermined.

The area is the site of the nation's highly-touted "fortress belt", the fortified defensive positions that represent a essential impediment to invading forces. The proposal would have the Ukrainian military surrender these fortifications, providing Russian forces a clear way to the capital should he later opt to resume the conflict.

Military Restrictions

Then, in a action that would make future hostilities easier for Russia, Trump would force Ukraine to diminish the scale of its troops from their existing approximately 800,000 troops to a cap of 600,000. Notably, the proposal imposes no such restrictions on the invading army.

In what appears as a accommodation to Russia's efforts to characterize the nation's legitimate leadership as Nazis, the plan declares: "All radical belief system and activities must be rejected and banned." Apparently to emphasize this element, it requires that "The nation will hold democratic votes in three months" of a ceasefire agreement. At the same time, Trump imposes no requirement that the Russian leader jeopardize his dictatorship by conducting votes in Russia.

Defense Assurances

To be sure, the proposal has the Russian Federation commit not to "invade neighboring countries" and to "establish in law its position of non-aggression towards European nations and Ukraine". Yet considering that the Russian leadership has broken similar accords in the past – for example the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which Russia pledged to respect the nation's territorial integrity in return for relinquishing its Soviet-era nuclear weapons, and the Minsk accords, in which Moscow promised to a halt in fighting and a return of occupied territory in the region to Kyiv – how should the international community believe Russia now?

For this reason Ukraine has been so insistent on western security guarantees. While the proposal warns of a "decisive joint armed reaction" if Russia restart its military campaign, and includes that "The nation will receive dependable security guarantees", the specifics include vague to concerning. The plan would not just block the nation Nato membership but also prevent Nato members from stationing troops on Ukraine's soil, thereby precluding the peacekeeping contingent, reportedly led by European powers, on which Ukraine had been counting to stop Putin from rebuilding his diminished military, re-equipping, and reinvading.

Global Reaction

An additional parallel deal apparently would provide Ukraine with a alliance-like security guarantee, in which any subsequent "serious, deliberate, and sustained military assault" by the Russian Federation on Ukraine "would be considered as an assault jeopardizing the peace and security of the Western nations." This indicates a military response. But unlike a capable Ukraine's armed forces – the nation's best defense against additional hostilities – the credibility of the side agreement would rely on the dedication of alliance members, like Trump, to respond with force to Russia's hostilities, an action they have {not