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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.

That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Not Ready

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate

The team have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but very few politicians or activists want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Both composes two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on either side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."

Request for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster should join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."